老板还有别的预言吗？ BitMEX创始人：美国印钞会更加夸张，近期是加仓的好时机

你们中的一些人认为自己现在是宇宙的主人，因为您以不到 10 美元的价格购买了 Solana，并以 200 美元的价格出售了它。其他人则做了聪明的事，在 2021-2023 年熊市期间出售法定货币以换取加密货币，但随着今年第一季度价格飙升，他们减少了头寸。如果你用垃圾币换取比特币，你就会获得通行证。比特币是有史以来最难创造的货币。​

牛市并不经常出现；牛市并不经常出现。当你做出正确的决定但没有最大化你的利润潜力时，这是一种讽刺。我们中有太多人试图进行乐观的推理。只要牛市持续，他们就会买入、持有、再买入。

有时我发现自己像个失败者一样思考。当我这样做时，我必须提醒自己整个散户和机构投资界都相信的总体宏观主题。也就是说，所有主要经济集团（美国、中国、欧盟和日本）都货币贬值以降低政府资产负债表的杠杆率。现在，TradFi 可以通过其在美国以及即将推出的英国和香港现货比特币 ETF 直接从这种叙述中获利，他们敦促客户使用这些加密货币衍生品来保持其财富的能源购买力。

我想快速解释一下加密货币相对于法定货币大幅上涨的根本原因。当然，这种叙述总有一天会失去效力，但那个时候还不是现在。此时，我会抑制住把筹码从桌上拿走的冲动。​

当我们退出我预测的由于 4 月 15 日美国纳税和比特币减半而导致的疲软窗口时，我想提醒读者为什么牛市将继续，价格将变得更加愚蠢。市场上很少有东西能让你到达这里（比特币从 2009 年的零到 2024 年的 70,000 美元），让你到达那里（比特币到 1,000,000 美元）。然而，随着主权债务泡沫开始破裂，导致法定流动性激增并推动比特币走高的宏观环境只会变得更加明显。

名义国内生产总值（GDP）

政府的目的是什么？政府提供道路、教育、医疗、社会秩序等公共产品。显然，这是许多政府的愿望清单，但他们却提供了死亡和绝望……但我离题了。作为这些服务的回报，我们公民纳税。预算平衡的政府在一定的税收收入下提供尽可能多的服务。

然而，有时政府会借钱来做一些它认为可以在不加税的情况下产生正长期价值的事情。

例如：

Expensive hydroelectric dams to build. Instead of raising taxes, the government issued bonds to pay for the dam. The hope is that the financial return from the dam will match or exceed the bond's yield. The government entices citizens to invest in the future by paying a rate of return close to the economic growth the dam will create. If a dam will grow the economy by 10% in 10 years, government bond yields should be at least 10% to attract investors. If the government pays less than 10%, then its profits come at the expense of the public. If the government pays more than 10%, the profits to the public are borne by the government.

Let’s look a little further and discuss the economy from a macro level. The economic growth rate of a given nation-state is its nominal GDP, which is composed of inflation and real growth. If the government wants to run a budget deficit to drive nominal GDP growth, it is natural and logical for investors to receive returns equal to the nominal GDP growth rate.

While it is natural for investors to expect benefits equivalent to nominal GDP growth, politicians would rather pay less than this. If politicians can create a situation where government debt yields are lower than nominal GDP growth, then politicians can spend money faster than Sam Bankman-Fried can spend on effective altruism philanthropy. The best part is that taxes don’t need to be raised to pay for this spending.

How do politicians create such a utopia? They use the TradFi banking system to financially suppress depositors. The simplest way to ensure that Treasury yields stay below nominal GDP growth is to instruct central banks to print money and buy Treasury bonds, artificially lowering Treasury yields. Banks were then told that government bonds were the only "appropriate" investment for the public. In this way, the public's savings are secretly invested in low-yielding government debt.

The problem with artificially low government bond yields is that it promotes inappropriate investment. The first project is usually worth it. However, as politicians strive to generate growth for re-election, the quality of projects has declined. At this point, government debt is growing faster than nominal GDP. Politicians now need to make tough decisions. Undue investment losses must be recognized today through a severe financial crisis or tomorrow through low or even zero growth. Often, politicians choose long periods of economic stagnation because the future occurs after they leave office.

A good example of inappropriate investment is green energy projects that are only possible through government subsidies. After years of generous subsidies, some projects fail to earn a return on invested capital or the real cost to consumers is too high. Predictably, once government support is withdrawn, demand weakens and projects stall.​

In bad times, when central banks press the "Brrrr" button harder than Lord Ashdrach hits the "sell" button, bond yields become more distorted. Government bond yields remain below nominal GDP growth, allowing the government's debt burden to be offset by inflation.

rate of return

The key task for investors is to understand when government bonds are a good investment. The simplest way is to compare year-over-year nominal GDP growth with the yield on a 10-year government bond. The 10-year bond yield should be a market signal giving us an idea of ​​what to expect in terms of future nominal growth.

• Real yield = 10-year government bond yield - nominal GDP growth

• Government bonds are a good investment when real yields are positive. The government is usually the most creditworthy borrower.

• Government bonds are poor investments when real yields are negative. The trick for investors is to look for assets outside the banking system that grow faster than inflation.

All four major economies have enacted policies that economically suppress savers and result in negative real yields. China, the European Union and Japan all ultimately take their monetary policy cues from the United States. Therefore, I will focus on the past and future monetary and fiscal conditions of the United States. As American engineers loosen financial conditions, the rest of the world will follow suit.

The chart shows real yields (.USNOM Index) in white and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) balance sheet in yellow. I started in 2009 because that was the year Bitcoin’s genesis block was launched.

As you can see, following the deflationary shock of the global financial crisis in 2008, real yields turned from positive to negative. The index briefly turned positive again due to the deflationary impact of the pandemic.

A deflationary shock is when real yields surge due to a sharp decline in economic activity.

With the exception of 2009 and 2020, government bonds have been a poor investment compared to stocks, real estate, cryptocurrencies, etc. Bond investors can only perform well by using crazy leverage to trade. For hedge fund puppet readers, this is the essence of risk parity.

This unnatural state occurs because the Fed expands its balance sheet by printing money to buy government bonds, a process called quantitative easing (QE).

The safety valve for negative real returns during this period was and is Bitcoin (yellow). Bitcoin is rising in a non-linear manner on a logarithmic chart. Bitcoin’s rise is purely a function of a limited number of assets priced in fiat dollar depreciation.

This explains what has happened in the past, but markets are forward-looking. Why should you continue your cryptocurrency investments and feel confident that this bull market has just begun?

free shit

Everyone wants to get something for nothing. Obviously, the universe will never provide anything this cheap, but that doesn't stop politicians from promising benefits without raising tax rates. Support for any politician, whether at the ballot box in a democracy or implicit support in more authoritarian systems, stems from the politician's ability to create economic growth. When simple and obvious pro-growth policies are enacted, politicians turn to the printing press to funnel money to their favored constituencies at the expense of the entire population.

As long as the government borrows at negative real yields, politicians can offer free stuff to their supporters. Thus, the more partisan and polarized a nation-state is, the greater the incentive for governing parties to improve their reelection chances by spending money they do not have.

2024 is a critical year for the world, with presidential elections taking place in many major countries. US elections are crucial globally because the Democrats in power will do whatever it takes to stay in office (as evidenced by the fact that the Orangemen have done some questionable things to the Republicans since they "lost" the last election). A large portion of Americans believe that Democrats somewhat cheated Trump out of winning. Whether you believe this to be true or not, the fact that a large portion of the population holds this view ensures that the stakes in this election are extremely high. As I said before, the peaceful fiscal and monetary policies under the US will be emulated by China, the EU and Japan, which is why it is important to pay attention to the election.

Above is a chart from BCA Research showing political polarization in the United States over time. As you can see, the electorate hasn’t been this polarized since the late 19th century. From an electoral perspective, this makes winner-take-all. Democrats know that if they lose, Republicans will reverse many of their policies. The next question is, what is the easiest way to ensure re-election?

This is stupid economics. Voters who have yet to decide on the election winner do so based on their views on the economy. As the chart above shows, if the public believes the economy is in recession during an election year, an incumbent president’s reelection chances drop from 67% to 33%. How can a ruling party with control over monetary and fiscal policy ensure that there is no recession?

Nominal GDP growth is directly affected by government spending. As you can see from this Bianco Research chart, the U.S. government spends 23% of nominal GDP. This means that the ruling party can print as much GDP as they want, as long as they are willing to borrow enough to meet the required spending levels.

The Chinese government determines the GDP growth rate every year. The banking system then creates enough credit to drive economic activity to the desired level. For many Western-trained economists, the "strength" of the U.S. economy is puzzling because many of the major economic variables they monitor point to an impending recession. But as long as the ruling party can borrow at negative interest rates, it can create the economic growth it needs to stay in power.

These are the reasons why the Democratic Party led by US President Biden will do everything possible to increase government spending. Treasury Secretary Yellen and her counterpart at the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, will then need to ensure that Treasury yields remain well below nominal GDP growth. I don’t know what euphemisms they will create for money printing to ensure negative real yields persist, but I am confident they will do what is necessary to re-elect their boss and his party.

However, the Orange might win. What happens to government spending in this case?

The chart above estimates the deficit through 2024 under a Biden or Trump presidency. As you can see, Trump is expected to spend more than Slow Joe. Trump is seeking another round of tax cuts that would further widen the deficit. Whichever geriatric clown you choose, rest assured government spending won't go down.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects government deficits based on current and hypothetical future political environments, which predict large deficits. Basically, if politicians can create 6% growth with 4% borrowing, why would they stop spending?

As mentioned above, the political situation in the United States makes me confident about the development of the money printing press. If you thought what the U.S. monetary and political elites did to “solve” the 2008 global financial crisis and pandemic was ridiculous, you haven’t seen anything yet.

Wars on the periphery of Pax Americana continue to be fought mainly on the battlefields of Ukraine, Russia, Israel, and Iran. As expected, warmongers in both parties are content to continue funding their proxies with billions in borrowed cash. As the conflict escalates and more countries are drawn into the melee, the costs will only increase.

Summarize

As we head into the Northern Hemisphere summer and policymakers take a breather from reality, cryptocurrency volatility will decline. This is the perfect time to take advantage of the recent cryptocurrency decline to slowly increase your position. I have a list of crapcoins that took a big hit last week. I will discuss them in the following articles. There will be many more token releases, but they won’t be as popular as the first quarter releases. This provides a great entry point for those who are not pre-sale investors. No matter how the flavor of cryptocurrency risk excites you, the next few months will provide a prime opportunity to add to your position.

你的直觉是，随着政客们把钱花在施舍和战争上，印钞将会加速，你是对的。不要低估当前精英阶层留任的愿望。如果实际利率转为正值，请重新评估您的加密货币信念。

【免责声明】市场存在风险，投资需谨慎。本文不构成投资建议，用户应考虑本文中包含的任何意见、观点或结论是否适合其特定情况。进行相应的投资并自行承担风险。

• 本文授权转载自：《前瞻新闻》

• 原作者：阿瑟·海耶斯

• 编译：陶铸、金色财经

标签：BitMEX 老板 BitMEX 创始人