预计减半后可能会下跌！ BitMEX创始人：“狗屎币”仓位已平，5月真正的牛市会到来吗？

（以下任何观点均为作者个人观点，不应构成投资决策的依据，也不应被视为从事投资交易的推荐或建议。）

砰!砰!砰!

这是手机提醒我监测夜间北海道各个滑雪场降雪情况的声音。虽然这种声音在一月和二月给我带来了巨大的快乐，但在三月它只带来了 FOMO。

我三月初从北海道出发，度过过去的几个滑雪季节。我最近的经验告诉我，大自然在 3 月 1 日左右开始升温。我是一名滑雪初学者，只喜欢最干燥、最深的斜坡。然而，这个赛季，盖亚却发生了巨大的变化。二月的一阵猛烈的暖浪驱走了积雪。寒冷的天气直到月底才会回来。但三月的寒冷气温又回来了，每晚都会倾倒 10 至 30 厘米的新鲜战俘。这就是我手机爆炸的原因。

整个三月，我坐在东南亚各个炎热潮湿的国家，愚蠢地查看应用程序，毁掉了我离开滑雪场的决定。四月的解冻终于真正发生了，我的 FOMO 也随之结束了。

正如读者所知，我的滑雪经历是我的一般经济学和加密货币交易书籍的隐喻。我之前写过，3月12日美国银行定期融资计划（BTFP）终止将导致全球市场暴跌。 BTFP被取消，但加密货币行业的恶性抛售并未发生。比特币果断突破 70,000 美元，最高达到 74,000 美元左右。 Solana 继续与各种小狗和小猫模因代币一起泵送。我的时机不好，但就像滑雪季节一样，三月出乎意料的有利条件不会在四月重演。

虽然我喜欢冬天，但夏天也带来欢乐。北半球夏季的到来带来了运动的乐趣，我重新安排了时间去打网球、冲浪和风筝冲浪。由于美联储和财政部的政策，夏季将出现新的法定流动性涌入。

我将简要概述我的思维导图，说明风险资产市场将如何以及为何在四月份经历极度疲软。对于那些敢于做空加密货币的人来说，整体经济形势是有利的。虽然我不会直接做空市场，但我已经平掉了几个垃圾币和 memecoin 交易头寸并获利了。从现在到 5 月 1 日我将处于非贸易区。我希望能在五月回来，带着准备部署的干火药，为牛市真正开始做好准备。

欺诈罪

The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) ended a few weeks ago, but U.S. too-big-to-fail (TBTF) banks have not faced any real pressure subsequently. This is because the high priests of Fugazi Finance have a range of tricks they will use to secretly print money to bail out the financial system. I will take a peek behind the scenes and explain how they are expanding the USD fiat supply, which will support a general rally in cryptocurrencies and stocks until the end of the year. While the end result is always money printing, the process is not without periods of slower liquidity growth, which provides negative catalysts for risk markets. By carefully studying this series of techniques and estimating when the rabbit will be pulled out of the hat, we can estimate when the period will come when the free market is allowed to operate.

Discount Window

The Fed and most other central banks operate a tool called the discount window. Banks and other covered financial institutions in need of funds can pledge eligible securities to the Fed in exchange for cash. Overall, the discount window currently only accepts U.S. Treasuries (UST) and mortgage-backed securities (MBS).

Let's say a bank got screwed because a bunch of Pierce and Pierce boomer puppets ran it. The bank's holdings of UST were worth $100 when purchased, but are currently worth $80. Banks need cash to meet deposit outflows. Insolvent shit banks could use the discount window instead of declaring bankruptcy. The bank exchanges $80 of UST for $80 of U.S. dollar bills because, under current rules, the bank receives the market value of the pledged security.

In an effort to repeal the BTFP and remove the associated negative stigma without increasing the risk of bank failure, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury are now encouraging troubled banks to take advantage of the discount window. However, under current collateral terms, the discount window is not as attractive as the recently expired BTFP. Let's go back to the example above to understand why.

Remember, the value of UST fell from $100 to $80, which means the bank had an unrealized loss of $20. Initially, $100 of UST is provided by a $100 deposit. But now UST is worth $80; therefore, if all depositors flee, the bank will be short $20. Under BTFP rules, banks receive the face amount of underwater UST. This means that $80 worth of UST would be exchanged for $100 in cash when delivered to the Fed. This restored the bank's solvency. But the discount window only offers $80 for $80 worth of UST. The $20 loss remains and the bank remains insolvent.

Given that the Fed can unilaterally change collateral rules to balance the treatment of assets under the BTFP and the discount window, by giving the insolvent banking system the green light to use the discount window, the Fed continues to engage in stealth bank bailouts. So the Fed essentially solves the BTFP problem; the entire UST and MBS balance sheet of the insolvent US banking system (which I estimate at $4 trillion) will be used to back loans if needed with funds printed from the discount window. This is why I believe the market did not force any non-TBTF banks into bankruptcy after the end of BTFP on March 12th.

bank capital requirements

Banks are often asked to provide funds to governments that issue bonds at yields below nominal GDP. But why would a private for-profit entity buy something with a negative real yield? They do this because banking regulators allow banks to buy government bonds with little or no down payment. When banks with insufficient capital buffers on their government bond portfolios inevitably collapse as inflation sets in and bond prices fall as yields rise, the Fed will allow them to use the discount window in the manner described above. . As a result, banks would rather buy and hold government bonds than provide loans to businesses and individuals in need of funds.

When you or I buy anything with borrowed money, we must pledge collateral or equity to cover potential losses. This is prudent risk management. But if you're a vampire squid zombie bank, the rules are different. After the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC), World Bank regulators sought to force global banks to hold more capital in order to create a more robust and resilient global banking system. The body of rules that codifies these changes is called Basel III.

The problem with Basel III is that government bonds are not considered risk-free. Banks must commit small amounts of capital to their large sovereign bond portfolios. These capital requirements prove problematic in times of stress. During the COVID-19 market crash in March 2020, the Federal Reserve decreed that banks could hold UST without the backing of collateral. This allows banks to step in and store trillions of dollars worth of UST in a risk-free way...at least as far as accounting is concerned.

When the crisis abated, UST's supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) exemption was reinstated. Predictably, as UST prices fell due to inflation, banks went bankrupt due to insufficient capital buffers. The Fed came to the rescue through BTFP and now the discount window, but that only made up for the losses from the last crisis. How can banks step up their game and absorb more bonds at current unattractively high prices?

The U.S. banking system loudly declared in November 2023 that as Basel III forced them to hold more capital in government bond portfolios, Bud. Gur. Yellen can't squeeze more bonds into them. So something has to give because the U.S. government has no other natural buyer of its debt with negative real yields. Here's how banks politely express their precarious situation.

Demand for U.S. Treasuries may have softened from some traditional buyers. Bank securities portfolio assets have been declining since last year, with banks holding $154 billion less in U.S. Treasury securities than a year ago.

Source: Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee Report to the Secretary of the Treasury

The Fed, led by Jerome Powell, once again saved the day. During a recent U.S. Senate banking industry hearing, Jerome Powell suddenly announced that banks would not be subject to higher capital requirements. Remember, many politicians are calling for banks to hold more capital to avoid a repeat of the regional banking industry crisis of 2023. Clearly, banks lobbied hard to have these higher capital requirements removed. They have a good argument - if you, Bad Gurl Yellen, want us to buy shit government bonds, then we can only profit with infinite leverage. Banks around the world manage all types of governments; the United States is no exception.

The icing on the cake is a recent letter from the International Exchange Dealers Association (ISDA) advocating for the exemption of UST from the SLR I talked about earlier. Essentially, if banks are not required to make any down payment, they can only hold trillions of dollars of UST to finance the U.S. government deficit on a future basis. I expect the ISDA proposal will be accepted as the U.S. Treasury ramps up debt issuance.

Image source: Arthur Hayes

This excellent chart from Bianco Research clearly illustrates the extent of waste in the U.S. government, as evidenced by record-high deficits. The last two periods of higher deficit spending were driven by the 2008 global financial crisis and the baby-boomer-led coronavirus lockdowns. The U.S. economy is growing, but the government is spending like it's a depression.

All in all, the relaxation of capital requirements and the possible future exemption of USTs from SLR is a covert way of printing money. The Fed doesn't print money, instead the banking system creates credit money out of thin air and buys bonds, which then appear on their balance sheets. As always, our aim is to ensure that government bond yields do not rise above nominal GDP growth. As long as real interest rates remain negative, the prices of stokes, cryptocurrencies, gold, etc. will continue to rise in fiat currency terms.

坏女孩——珍妮特·路易斯·耶伦

My article "Bad Gurl" delves into how the U.S. Treasury Department, led by Bad Gurl Yellen, is increasing the issuance of short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) to deplete the trillions of dollars locked up in the Fed's reverse repo program (advice retail price). As expected, the decline in MSRP coincided with gains in stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. But now that MSRP has dropped to $400 billion, markets are wondering what the next source of fiat liquidity will be to boost asset prices. Don't worry, Yellen hasn't finished yet, shouting "The loot is about to drop."

RRP balance (white) vs. Bitcoin (yellow)

Image source: Arthur Hayes

The statutory funding flows I will discuss focus on U.S. tax payments, the Fed's quantitative tightening (QT) program, and the Treasury General Account (TGA). The timeline in question is from April 15 (the tax due date for the 2023 tax year) to May 1.

Let me help you understand what these three things mean by providing a quick guide on their positive or negative impact on liquidity.

Paying taxes removes liquidity from the system. This is because taxpayers must take cash out of the financial system, such as by selling securities, in order to pay their taxes. Analysts expect tax payments to be higher in the 2023 tax year due to large interest income received and solid stock market performance.

QT removes liquidity from the system. As of March 2022, the Fed is allowing approximately $95 billion worth of UST and MBS to mature without reinvesting the proceeds. This causes the Fed's balance sheet to decline, which, as we all know, reduces U.S. dollar liquidity. However, what concerns us is not the absolute level of the Fed's balance sheet, but the rate of its decline. Analysts such as Joe Kalish of Ned Davis Research expect the Fed to reduce the pace of QT by $30 billion per month at its May 1 meeting. A slower pace of QT would be positive for USD liquidity as the Fed's balance sheet decline slows.

When the TGA balance rises, it removes liquidity from the system, but when the TGA balance falls, it adds liquidity to the system. When tax payments are received by the Treasury, the TGA balance increases. I expect that with tax processing on April 15, the TGA balance will be well above its current level of about $750 billion. This is negative dollar liquidity. Don’t forget this is an election year. Yellen's job is to get her boss, President Joseph Robinette Biden Jr, re-elected. That means she must do everything she can to stimulate the stock market and make voters feel rich, and attribute this great result to the slow-moving “genius” of Biden’s economics. When the RRP balance finally drops to zero, Yellen will spend the TGA, likely releasing an additional $1 trillion of liquidity into the system, which will boost the market.

The period of instability for risk assets is from April 15 to May 1. At this point, the tax will remove liquidity from the system, QT will continue to run at its currently higher rate, and Yellen has not yet begun to reduce TGA. After May 1, the pace of QT slowed down and Yellen was busy cashing checks to drive up asset prices. If you are a trader looking for the right time to take a shameless short position, April is the time. After May 1, it's back to business as usual planning... asset inflation initiated by the financial shenanigans of the Fed and the US Treasury.

Bitcoin Halving

The Bitcoin block reward is expected to be halved on April 20. This is seen as a bullish catalyst for the cryptocurrency market. I agree that it will push prices higher in the medium term; however, the price action before and after is likely to be negative. The argument that halving is good for cryptocurrency prices is well established. When a majority of market participants agree on a certain outcome, the opposite often occurs. This is why I believe Bitcoin and cryptocurrency prices in general will plummet around the time of the halving.

Given that the halving occurs at a time when USD liquidity is tighter than usual, this will add fuel to the frantic sell-off in crypto assets. The timing of the halving further adds to my decision to abandon the trade before May.

So far I have made full profits on positions $MEW, $SOL and $NMT. Proceeds are deposited into Ethena's $USDe and staked to earn huge yields. Before Ethena, I held $USDT or $USDC and got nothing, while Tether and Circle got the full treasury yield.

Can the market overcome my bearish bias and continue higher? Fucking yes. I've always been passionate about cryptocurrencies, so I welcome mistakes.

Do I really want to take care of my most speculative shitcoin position when I'm two-stepping in Token2049 Dubai? Definitely not.

Therefore, I sold to clear my position.

There is no need to feel sad.

If the USD liquidity scenario I discussed above comes to fruition, I'll be more confident in imitating all kinds of shit. If I miss out on gains by a few percentage points but absolutely avoid losses on my portfolio and lifestyle, that's an acceptable outcome. Just like that, I bid you farewell. Remember to put on your dancing shoes, we’ll see you in Dubai to celebrate the crypto bull run.

• This article is reprinted with permission from: "MarsBit"

• Original author: Arthur Hayes

• Compiled by: Lynn, Mars Finance

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