2024比特币减半周期的黑天鹅事件及风险管理

BTC Halving Cycle in 2024 (Black Swan)Black swan events occurring before the halving or during the bull market will not interrupt the bull market process. A black swan event at the end of a bull market may end the bull market or even directly lead to a bear market. Black swan events in the crypto market include regulatory crackdowns, hacker attacks, global macro events, Ponzi model collapse, etc. Historical declines usually exceed 40% and last for more than a month. Black swan events occur almost every year, and events in the next year or the next may be related to traditional financial macro events, such as debt crises, banking problems, and economic slowdowns. Dealing with black swan events requires understanding currency cycles, asset diversification (US stocks, crypto, OTC cash flow), and hedging risks through options or hedging.Black swan event nodes that need attention:March before the halving: The 312 incident and the bankruptcy of Silicon Valley Bank occurred, and the stock market fluctuated greatly. Most of the previous financial crises occurred in this month. May after the halving: The May 19 and LUNA events occurred, which are key nodes after the halving and the Fed’s interest rate cut game. One year after the halving, May to July 2025: Events such as 9.4 and 5.19 may interrupt the bull market process due to policy intervention. Previously, the market usually showed signs or was too enthusiastic, and the government may intervene. November to December 2025: The time points for the end of previous bull markets, such as the historical high in 2017, the historical high in 2021, and the FTX incident in 2022, mainly depend on whether BTC has made significant progress in the traditional financial market, such as the first two This time was caused by CME BTC Futures and Yuehe BTC Futures ETF.

标签：比特币 管理 风险 事件