据 ChainCatcher 报道,SLombard 美国经济学家 Steven Blit 表示,若美联储不尽快采取行动,人们将主动寻找经济走向衰退的迹象,而非等待衰退本身的指标出现。
不断涌现的疲软数据虽不至于被视为不利于增长的严重罪行,但也会带来问题。若美联储止步不前,或等待数据推动再采取行动,那么今年晚些时候陷入衰退的概率将攀升至 75%。鉴于市场预计美联储将很快释放 9 月降息 50 个基点的信号,实际发生的概率可能更小。到年底,美联储可能会降息 100 个基点。若美联储采取行动,衰退的可能性会更低,但并非为零。(金十)
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