2024 年 11 月 15 日 OTC 交易周报

本周热门话题

• 受唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国总统大选带来的看涨情绪推动，比特币突破了之前的阻力位 73,500 美元，随后，11 月 13 日，BTC 在我们的现货市场上飙升至 93,265 USDT 的历史新高。在这四天里，比特币实现了令人印象深刻的 22% 的涨幅。然而，我们的团队观察到，模因币的表现明显优于其他货币，吸引了市场兴趣并导致交易量上升。

• 以狗为主题的 meme 币在我们的热门币名单中占据了首位。狗币 ($DOGE) 是市值最大的 meme 币，上周市场预期当选总统唐纳德·特朗普任命亿万富翁埃隆·马斯克领导政府效率部 (DOGE)，狗币价格飙升 100%。在我们的 Convert 平台上，狗币价格飙升也导致其他以狗为主题的币（如柴犬 ($SHIB) 和 Bonk ($BONK)）的交易活动增加。

• 卡尔达诺（ADA）上周表现不俗，价格上涨了 56.1%。即将到来的 Chang 2 硬分叉将促进各种整合，这推动了这一飙升。此次升级有望实现全面的链上治理，这是社区热切期待的功能。它将引入一个去中心化的投票系统，允许社区成员将权力委托给代表或直接管理。这次网络升级引起了投资者的关注，导致大量资金涌入该项目。

整体市场

• 上图是BTC日K线图。

• BTC 上周末经历了大幅上涨，成功突破了 3 月份创下的 73,777 USDT 的历史高点。短短四天内，BTC 价格又上涨了 22%，于 11 月 13 日创下 93,265 USDT 的新高。我们的分析表明，美国大选日之后，资金稳步流入美国比特币现货 ETF，反映出投资者对比特币前景的信心，尤其是考虑到当选总统唐纳德·特朗普对加密货币行业的利好立场。

• Moreover, the appealing spread between the spot price and the November month-end deliverables on CME has generated considerable market interest. Traders have been actively purchasing Bitcoin ETFs while simultaneously shorting the deliverables on CME, allowing them to secure an impressive annualized yield of 24%. This trading strategy can be sustained as long as the yield between the spot and deliverables remains attractive, regardless of whether the BTC price appears excessively high. This dynamic may explain the rapid increase in BTC prices when the US market opened on Monday.

• As BTC prices rapidly climbed past the 80k, 85k, and 90k thresholds within a matter of days, many traders may have felt underexposed to BTC and sought opportunities for entry during any potential retracement. The critical question remains: will BTC offer a favorable entry point with a significant pullback?

• Earlier this year, in February, BTC recorded ten consecutive days of gains, rising 24% from 42k to 52.8k before entering a week-long consolidation phase between 50.7k and 52.8k. After the consolidation, BTC continued its ascent for another 18 days, achieving another 45% increase, with only one instance of a 15% retracement during that time.

• Given the robust capital inflow from the spot ETF sector and the profitable yield generation between spot and deliverables, BTC's upward momentum appears to be firmly established. Our projections indicate that BTC will likely maintain its upward trend, albeit at a more gradual pace for the remainder of the year, potentially experiencing a few retracements of 10% or more along the way.
  Macro at a glance

• Following a hectic week characterized by the US election and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, this week appears to be relatively calm.

• Last Friday (24-11-08)

  • The unemployment rate in Canada held steady at 6.5% in October, which is marginally better than the anticipated rate of 6.6%. Since June 2024, the Bank of Canada has lowered its interest rate by 125 basis points to support the economy.

• On Monday (24-11-11)

  • The unemployment rate in the UK increased to 4.3% in September, up from 4.0% in August, surpassing the anticipated rate of 4.1%.

  • In Germany, the monthly CPI experienced a 0.4% rise in October, rising from a 0.0% growth in September. Additionally, the annual CPI rate in Germany rose to 2.0% in October, compared to 1.6% in September.

• On Wednesday (24-11-13)

  • The United States released its CPI and core CPI data for October, with all results aligning with market expectations. The annual CPI increased from 2.4% in September to 2.6% in October, while the annual core CPI remained steady at 3.3%, unchanged from September.

Convert Portal Volume Change

• The above table shows the volume change on our Convert Portal by zone.

• 受唐纳德·特朗普赢得总统大选后乐观情绪的推动，BTC 突破了 2024 年 3 月创下的历史新高。这次成功突破表明七个月的盘整期已经结束，BTC 进入了新的价格发现阶段。BTC 的强劲表现激发了交易者的热情，而 meme 币也在市场上获得了显著的吸引力，导致 meme 币的交易活动激增。

• 在 Meme 领域，交易量的激增可以归因于围绕 meme 币的异常活跃的交易活动。狗狗币 ($DOGE) 是此次交易量增长的主要贡献者，而其他 meme 币在上周的交易量也经​​历了大幅增长。

• Solana 板块的交易量大幅增长了 302.9%，这主要得益于 Solana ($SOL) 的强劲表现以及在 Solana 区块链上引入两种新的 meme 币，即 Peanut the Squirrel ($PNUT) 和 Act I The AI Prophecy ($ACT)。

• 此外，人工智能领域的交易活动显著增长了 245.3%，其中第一幕《人工智能预言》（$ACT）引起了市场的极大兴趣。

  
  

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