2024 年 9 月 27 日 OTC 交易周报

• 继上周三美联储降息 50 个基点后，市场情绪转为看涨，正如我们之前的更新中讨论的那样。上周，比特币 (BTC) 的交易价格在 63,000 美元左右，而我们的团队注意到在此期间对山寨币的需求显着增加。值得注意的是，模因币和某些第一层代币，如 Sui ($SUI) 和 NEAR ($NEAR)，引起了相当大的关注。

• Sui ($SUI) 在市值排名前 100 的加密货币中表现优异。SUI 的价格于 9 月 2 日开始上涨，为 0.74 美元，于 9 月 24 日达到 1.76 美元的峰值，三周内涨幅高达 137%。促成这一惊人涨幅的一个关键因素是最近向合格投资者推出了 Grayscale Sui Trust。

• 同样，Bittensor ($TAO) 在过去一周内大幅上涨了 66.1%，Convert 上的交易量飙升了 200% 以上。早在 8 月推出 Grayscale Sui Trust 时，Grayscale Investment 还推出了 Grayscale Bittensor Trust，该信托专注于投资 Bittensor ($TAO)。TAO 的价格于 9 月 6 日以 228 美元的价格开始上涨，并于 9 月 24 日攀升至近期高点 590 美元，三周内涨幅达 160%。

• 另一种第一层代币 NEAR ($NEAR) 也在其竞争对手 Sui 引领的趋势下，在最近几周内需求强劲。灰度投资在灰度 Sui 信托推出前一个月推出了灰度 NEAR 信托。虽然这三种代币同时上涨可能是巧合，但谨慎的做法是监测它们的表现以寻找潜在模式。

  
  

  整体市场

• 上图显示了8小时图中的BTC价格走势。

• 正如我们之前更新所强调的，在美联储上周三意外决定降息 50 个基点后，市场情绪明显转向看涨。此举标志着降息周期的开始，这通常被视为全球流动性的积极信号。这样的环境通常会鼓励投资者承担更多风险，从而促进各种资产类别的风险偏好整体上升。

• In our analysis of Bitcoin (BTC), we identified critical resistance levels at $63,000 and $65,000 when the cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $61,000. These levels are clearly illustrated by the red bars in the accompanying chart. On the other hand, we have observed that the $50,000 to $52,000 range has established itself as a strong support zone, with $57,000 acting as a local support level, as represented by the green bars. Currently, the $63,000 level is functioning as a support for BTC, while the $65,000 level remains a significant point of resistance. Over the past week, the price of BTC has been fluctuating within this relatively narrow range, indicating a period of consolidation.

• However, our team has observed a concerning decline in upward market momentum over the last 48 hours, which has been accompanied by a notable decrease in spot market volume. This trend suggests that demand for BTC may be diminishing, while the supply around the $65,000 mark remains substantial. Such dynamics could lead to increased selling pressure if the trend continues.

• Looking ahead, if we were to witness a substantial upward candle in BTC price that successfully breaks through the $65,000 resistance level with significant trading volume, it would serve as a strong confirmation that bullish sentiment is indeed prevailing in the market. This breakout could potentially pave the way for a swift move towards our next target of $67,000. Should the price manage to overcome the $67,000 resistance, we anticipate a robust rally that would signal the conclusion of a six-month consolidation phase, setting the stage for further upward momentum in the cryptocurrency market.

• While the current market conditions present both opportunities and challenges, the key levels we are monitoring will be crucial in determining the next steps for BTC and the broader market. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared to react to any significant price movements that may arise in the coming days.

Options Market

• The above chart is the 25-delta skew on BTC options in the last two weeks.

• The 25-delta skew serves as a valuable gauge for assessing market sentiment. By analyzing the differences in premiums between 25-delta calls and puts within the options market, this skew provides insights into the perspectives of market participants. A positive skew indicates that options traders are inclined to pay higher premiums for calls compared to puts, reflecting a preference for potential upside gains, whereas a negative skew suggests a greater inclination toward downside protection.

• The above chart indicates that the skew in front-end options exhibited an upward trend towards zero after the BTC price found its support at the $57k level. The bullish 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed pushed the skew of the 7-day expired option above 0. However, the front-end skew has recently transitioned into a phase of sideways consolidation, remaining just below the zero threshold. In contrast, the skews for intermediate to long-term options that continue to be above the 0 mark have shown no significant directional changes.

• This suggests that options traders are adopting a cautious stance regarding the short-term outlook for BTC prices while maintaining a more optimistic view for the long term. Following a drop in BTC prices below the $63,000 mark this morning, all skews experienced a decline, with the skew for the 7-day expired option falling below -2.

• In conjunction with our analysis of the BTC spot price, our team anticipates that BTC will likely continue to trade sideways beneath the $65,000 resistance level ahead of the US PCE Price Index data release this Friday. The market may experience volatility in response to the PCE data as investors look to it for clues about the Federal Reserve's forthcoming decisions.

Macro at a glance

• Last Thursday (24-09-19)

  • The Australian Employment Change for August was reported at 47.5K, a decrease from the revised figure of 48.9K in July, which was initially reported as 58.2K. This figure surpassed the consensus estimate of 25.0K. The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% for August.

  • During the Bank of England's meeting on September 19, the bank rate was held steady at 5%, aligning with economists' predictions. In August, the BoE had reduced the rate by 25 basis points following a drop in the annual inflation rate below 2% in July. Despite the Federal Reserve's recent 50 basis points cut, UK policymakers chose to maintain the current rates.

  • In the United States, initial jobless claims fell to 219,000 this week, down from 231,000 the previous week, indicating a slight improvement in the job market.

• Last Friday (24-09-20)

  • The Bank of Japan decided to keep its interest rate at 0.25%. Governor Ueda indicated that the bank would take its time to assess the implications of global economic uncertainties, suggesting no immediate plans to increase borrowing costs.

  • The UK experienced robust retail sales growth in August, with a monthly increase of 1.0% and an annual growth rate of 2.5%, both exceeding forecasts of 0.3% and 1.4%, respectively. Core retail sales also demonstrated strong performance, with a monthly rise of 1.1% and an annual growth rate of 2.3%, significantly higher than the predicted 0.5% and 1.1%.

• On Tuesday (24-09-24)

  • 澳洲联储维持利率在4.35%不变，行长米歇尔·布洛克强调，近期不太可能降息，同时表示未讨论货币紧缩政策，软化了央行此前的强硬立场。

  • 在美国，9月份消费者信心有所下降，美国经济咨商会的消费者信心指数从8月份的105.6降至98.7。

• 周三 (24-09-25)

  • 8月份美国新屋销售量达到71.6万套，超过预测的69.9万套，尽管比7月份的75.1万套有所下降。

转换门户体积变化

• 上表显示了我们的转换门户上各区域的成交量变化。

• 继美联储上周三实施 50 个基点的降息后，我们交易台各个板块的交易量显著增加。虽然比特币在 62,000 美元至 65,000 美元之间波动，但投资者和交易员对山寨币的兴趣明显增加。

• 在监控区，交易量激增 156.3%，其中 ARK ($ARK) 和 Beta Finance ($BETA) 是这一令人印象深刻的增长的主要贡献者。

• 与此同时，随着 Solana 的价格 ($SOL) 攀升至 150 美元以上，Solana 区的交易量也增长了 139.6%。Solana 网络对 meme 币的需求强劲，尤其是 Book of MEME ($BOME) 和 Dogwifhat ($WIF)。

• 此外，AI Zone 的交易量连续两周大幅增长，主要得益于对 Bittensor ($TAO) 和 Worldcoin ($WLD) 的浓厚兴趣。

  
  

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