价格分析 3/4：SPX、DXY、BTC、ETH、BNB、SOL、XRP、ADA、DOGE、AVAX

标准普尔 500 指数 (SPX) 和纳斯达克综合指数上周创下历史新高，表明投资者的风险偏好情绪。

比特币 (BTC) 也不甘落后，目前距离 2021 年 11 月创下的历史高点 69,000 美元还差不到 2,000 美元。

这种势头有利于买家在未来几天内将比特币的价格推升至历史新高。

但核心问题是，升破 69,000 美元是否会开启下一阶段的上升趋势，还是价格会急剧下跌并开始修正阶段，从而困住激进的多头？

每日加密货币市场表现。

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在 FOMO 阶段，会在短时间内获得丰厚回报。

尽管风险很高，但这一时期会奖励能够度过这一阶段的交易者。

然而，交易者需要小心，因为垂直上涨之后会出现急剧下跌。

因此，交易者应做好止损准备，以免收益迅速蒸发。

多头能否将比特币推向历史新高并维持下去，还是到了获利了结的时候了？

让我们分析一下图表来找出答案。

标准普尔 500 指数价格分析

3月1日，标准普尔500指数收于历史新高，表明多头仍牢牢占据主导地位。

SPX 日线图。

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该指数已经连续多日在上升通道模式内交易，表明空头可能对阻力线构成强有力的挑战。

如果价格从阻力线下跌，空头将试图将指数拉至支撑线。

跌破该通道将开始短期调整阶段。

相反，如果多头将价格推升至通道之上，则将预示着动能回升。

这可能会引发垂直反弹，使该指数升至 5,300 点，然后升至 5,500 点。

交易者需要保持谨慎，因为相对强弱指数（RSI）的负背离表明多头可能正在失去动力。

美元指数价格分析

2 月 29 日，多头将美元指数 (DXY) 推升至 20 日指数移动平均线 (104) 上方，但未能在此基础上再进一步。

3 月 1 日，卖家将价格拉回至 20 日均线下方。

DXY 日线图。

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20 日均线已经趋于平缓，RSI 接近中点，表明近期可能出现区间波动。

如果价格保持在 20 日均线下方，该指数可能会滑向 50 日简单移动平均线 (103)。

预计买家将大力捍卫这一水平。

相反，如果价格从当前水平回升并升至 104.30 以上，则表明较低水平上存在强劲买盘。

随后该指数可能升至 105。突破该阻力位可能为升至 106 打开大门。

比特币价格分析

Bitcoin has been in a solid uptrend for the past several days. The bears tried to halt the up move near $64,000, but that resulted in the formation of a pennant.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls reasserted their supremacy after kicking the price above the pennant on March 4. This signals the start of the next leg of the uptrend, which could reach the all-time high at $69,000 and thereafter continue to $76,000, which is the pattern target of the breakout from the pennant.

Time is running out for the bears. If they want to make a comeback, they will have to quickly drag the price below $60,000. If they do that, several stops of short-term traders may hit, and the BTC/USDT pair could drop to the 20-day EMA ($56,250).

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) witnessed profit booking near $3,600 on Feb. 29, but the bears failed to start a pullback, indicating that every minor dip is being purchased.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls are again trying to overcome the stiff barrier at $3,600. If they manage to do that, the ETH/USDT pair could start the next leg of the uptrend and surge toward $4,000 and later to $4,150.

The upsloping moving averages suggest that bulls are in control, but the RSI has been in the overbought zone for several days, increasing the possibility of a short-term pullback. The immediate support on the downside is at $3,300, and then the 20-day EMA ($3,129).

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) has been in an uptrend for several days. The bears tried to stall the rally at $427, but the bulls bought the dip on Feb. 29, indicating a positive sentiment.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising moving averages and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest that the path of least resistance is to the upside. If buyers shove the price above $427, the BNB/USDT pair could reach $460. The bulls may find it challenging to break above this resistance with ease.

The critical support to watch on the downside is the 20-day EMA ($383). If this support cracks, it will indicate that the short-term traders may be rushing to the exit. That could start a corrective phase toward the 50-day SMA ($338).

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) turned down sharply on March 3, but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The upsloping 20-day EMA ($0.58) and the RSI in the overbought zone suggest the bulls are in command. There is a minor resistance at $0.67, but it is likely to be crossed. The rally could then reach the powerful resistance of $0.74.

Instead, if the price turns down sharply from $0.67, it will signal that the bears are fiercely defending the level. That could pull the price down to the 20-day EMA and keep the XRP/USDT pair inside the $0.46 to $0.67 range for a while.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) closed above the $126 resistance on March 1, but the bulls are struggling to sustain the momentum. This suggests a lack of demand at higher levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price maintains above $126, it will increase the likelihood of the resumption of the uptrend. If buyers pierce the $138 level, the SOL/USDT pair is likely to rise to $143 and then to $158.

Contrary to this assumption, if the $126 level gives way, the pair may slump to the 20-day EMA ($116). The bears will have to drag the price below the 20-day EMA to suggest that the breakout above $126 was a fake move. The pair may then drop to the 50-day SMA ($104).

Related: BTC price nears $67K as new GBTC Bitcoin outflows pass $550M

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) started the next leg of the uptrend after buyers overcame the $0.68 barrier on March 1. The bears tried to tug the price back below the breakout level on March 3, but the bulls held their ground. This shows strong buying on dips.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The up move is likely to reach $0.90, where the bears are expected to mount a strong defense. If the momentum remains strong and buyers bulldoze their way through $0.90, the rally could extend to $1.25. The bulls may find it difficult to cross this level.

The RSI has risen above 80, indicating that the rally is at a risk of stalling. The 20-day EMA ($0.64) remains the essential support to watch out for on the downside. A break and close below this level will signal that the bulls are losing their grip. The ADA/USDT pair may then slide to the 50-day SMA ($0.56).

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been in a strong bull run for the past few days. The bears tried to pull the price lower on March 3, but the long tail on the candlestick shows aggressive buying by the bulls.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls resumed the uptrend by pushing the DOGE/USDT pair above the $0.16 overhead resistance on March 4. This opens the door for a possible rise to $0.18 and thereafter to $0.22. The sharp rally has sent the RSI deep into the overbought territory, suggesting a consolidation or correction may be around the corner.

The first support on the downside is at $0.16 and then at $0.12. If this support is taken out, it will suggest that the uptrend may be over.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) completed a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern after the price closed above the neckline at $42 on March 1.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The AVAX/USDT pair is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the $42 level. If buyers flip the level into support and propel the price above $45, the pair could rally toward the psychological resistance at $50. If this level is overcome, the pair may reach the pattern target of $57.

卖家将不得不将价格拉至 20 日均线（40 美元）以下，以削弱多头的力量。

随后该货币对可能会跌至 50 日移动平均线（37 美元），这表明 3 月 1 日的突破可能是一个牛市陷阱。

本文不包含投资建议或建议。

每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。

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