随着比特币减半和美联储降息预期，24-25年牛市中BTC价格会是多少？

昨天（13日），大饼重新回到了5万美元的关键位置。

在这个位置上，很多老韭菜已经耐心等待了两年多了。

该价格也创下了该馅饼自2021年12月以来的最高水平。

许多分析师将当前市场的上涨归因于美国现货ETF的表现。

据 CoinShares 报告，截至上周五，新推出的比特币现货 ETF（不包括 Grayscale 的 GBTC）持有超过 192,000 BTC，不到一个月的时间就超过了 MicroStrategy 的 190,000 BTC。

仅资本流入就超过10亿美元。

除了现货ETF对大饼价格的积极推动外，今年也是大饼的关键一年，因为大饼减半预计将在两个月后（4月）发生，届时各地区的区块奖励将从目前的6.25 BTC下降至3.125 BTC（最近一次减半发生在2020年），减半也被许多人认为是大牛市的早期信号。

此外，宏观经济方面，一些宏观经济分析师也认为，美联储可能会在今年第三季度降息。

现货ETF+BTC减半+美联储降息。

在此类综合事件的影响下，今年下半年或明年大概率将迎来加密市场新一轮牛市。

那么今天我们继续简单聊聊市场。

1、从市值的角度来谈

我们先来回顾一下过去三个加密周期的总市值数据。

如下所示。

2017 年 2 月加密货币总市值：200 亿美元

2021 年 2 月加密货币总市值：1.5 万亿美元

2024 年 2 月加密货币总市值：1.9 万亿美元

在上述三个周期中，从2017年2月到2021年2月，加密货币整体市场规模增长了75倍。从2021年2月到2024年2月，增长了约1.3倍。

这里我们可以简单地做一个假设：

假设到2025年2月，加密货币市场规模达到3.8万亿美元，BTC.D（BTC Dominance）占比60%，那么BTC的价格将约为10,8000美元，这将高于我们的预期现在。

等级高出2倍。

当然，这只是一个简单的假设。

如果你胆子大一点，你还可以认为，本轮牛市的加密货币市场整体规模可能达到6万亿美元（上一轮牛市的峰值为3万亿美元），如果按照这样的话，那么BTC的价格可能会达到17万美元，这将是我们现在水平的3.4倍。

In some of Hua Li Huawai's previous articles, we have also made some subjective predictions about the price of BTC. For now, I personally prefer 100,000-120,000 US dollars, and this range will also be my starting point. Consider the range for selling in lots.

2. Let’s talk from a project perspective

QuantMeta made an interesting statistic a few days ago. The dimension of its statistics is the top 100 projects by market capitalization in each cycle.

The final result is:

Eleven of the top 100 projects in February 2017 are still in the top 100.

47 of the top 100 projects in February 2021 are still in the top 100.

A basic conclusion (hypothesis) can be drawn here. Among the current top 100 projects by market value, it is estimated that at least 50% of the projects will remain in the top 100 in the next bull market.

This seems to be more consistent with the Lindy Effect, that is, the expected lifespan of things is proportional to the time they have existed. Applying it to the encryption field, the more cycles a project survives, the more likely it is to continue to exist. The greater the sex.

There are at least tens of thousands of projects in the encryption field, so if you don’t have that much time and energy to do research, you can give priority to those projects that are currently ranked in the top 100, so that you will have at least half the probability of success in buying potential share.

Of course, this also depends on your own goal setting, position situation and risk management plan. If you are still waiting on the sidelines, or still holding a goal of a hundred times or a thousand times, hoping to be able to make a big difference with a small gain. and get rich overnight, then you don’t need to waste time reading these theoretical articles. You should seize the time to write tens of thousands of projects on paper, and then throw them on the ground to draw lots. You may be able to catch a hundred or a thousand times. Woolen cloth?

And if you have the time and energy to do research, then through the above assumptions we can know that in the next cycle (in the next 1-2 years) there may be 30-50 new projects among the top 100 in market capitalization, and if we can If you bet on these projects in advance, the theoretical benefits that can be realized will be greater.

But this matter is indeed difficult. Take Hua Li Hua Wai as an example. In the past year alone, we have shared/mentioned no less than 1,000 projects through official account articles. Even if we only select possible projects from these 1,000 It is also difficult to buy 30-50 projects, let alone buy 3-5 further targets from them.

Therefore, my suggestion in the past has always been to put at least 50% of the position in big cakes and shaobing, and then only use 20–30% of the position to explore a few potential blue chips. That is to say, you can only focus on the 1-3 tracks that you are most optimistic about (such as AI, GameFi, RWA, etc.), and then select a few projects that are at the top of the corresponding tracks but whose current market value is still outside the 100th place.

3. Let’s talk from the perspective of price

We made an assumption above, assuming that BTC.D (BTC Dominance) accounts for 60% during the bull market, which means that at the peak of the bull market, the overall size of the crypto market may reach US$6 trillion.

So, under this assumption, what price will the altcoin that ranks third in market value reach by then (the first and second rankings will undoubtedly be BTC and ETH, and stablecoins are not included)?

At the peak of the last bull market, the third-ranked project was BNB. At that time, BNB’s market value accounted for 4.3% of the overall size of the crypto market.

Then, if we continue to calculate the third-ranked project in the next big bull market (it may or may not be BNB) at 4.3%, then the market value of the corresponding project will be US$258 billion.

The current market value of BNB is US$50.9 billion, which means that the third-ranked project still has room for growth of about 5 times. Likewise, you can calculate rankings 4–100.

Of course, all of the above is based on assumptions.

In general, we are still some distance away from a bull market. If you are still waiting on the short side, I hope this article can give you some tips from another perspective. At the same time, we must also remember that even a bull market will have a correction. In this process, in addition to the three aspects of goal setting, position status and risk management, mentality is also very important.

4. Let’s talk from the perspective of mentality

Whether investing or doing other things, I think mentality is the most important thing.

In the field of encryption, we often encounter such situations. For example, you have been looking at 25,000 Bitcoins for a long time, but you just didn't buy it. Now you find that it has reached $50,000, which has doubled. You think it is too late to buy now, so you will continue to wait and see. Then, you will continue to watch it rise from 50,000 to 80,000, or even 100,000 US dollars. The further you go, the less you dare to buy, until finally you watch it break through the all-time high, and then you can't help it anymore, so you chase it, and you get trapped. At the top of the mountain.

The core reason here is still a problem of mentality. To put it in more specific professional terms, it is the problem of anchoring effect.

So how can this problem be overcome or solved?

简单来说，我觉得还是得回到我前面提到的那三个方面，即目标设定、仓位情况和风险管理。如果你能够想清楚、或者规划清楚这三个方面，然后按纪律去执行，基本那么是可以克服上面这类问题的。

就拿我自己来举例吧：

目标设定方面，本轮周期我的目标是3-5倍。

仓位管理方面，分了A、B、C三个等级。A级占8成仓位，只用于按月囤BTC。B级占1成仓位，看情况决定（最近这1年中买过一点FET） 、SOL、AVAX、ARB）。C级占1成仓位，不动。

风险管理方面，我这几年基本只做了那么十件事，安全性才是我考虑的重点。

基于以上的规划，从 2022 年开始，在比特币 38000–40000 区间的时候，我就开始按月定投 BTC 了，因为我当时对 BTC 未来的预期就是 10–12 万，所以我从 38000 一路定投到15000，然后又从15000一路定投到40000。而且这个期间也基本不会去关心什么K线和价格波动，我之一切都能够这么坚持因为死死拿住，核心还是我在严格遵守自己的纪律（目标+仓位+风险）再执行极限。

当然，这个过程中面临着非常多的诱惑，但我基本都是选择缺失或不参与。因为每个人的时间、精力、投入都是有限的，不可能什么都、且什么都做好，需要做一个自己角度的取舍，我觉得只做那么1-2件事情就够了。对我来说，写文章（即通过做自媒体让自己保持对这个领域的持续了解和学习）是个人兴趣爱好、屯币（定投大饼）是个人投资策略，我只要做好这2件事情足够，再多的诱惑我都可以选择视而不见。而至于文章怎么写、写什么内容、大饼囤怎么、什么时候开始囤……这些也基本都是按自己的想法来就行，不会受到任何人的影响左右。

在这个领域中，如果你只专注于空投，并且达到了个人的最高，那么你光做空投这件事就可以赚到钱。如果你只专注于空投，并且可以达到达到个人专业的交易员，做短线交易也能赚到钱。如果你也像我一样比较喜欢写文章，那么只要自媒体做到这个行业里面的头部，肯定也能赚到钱。如果你工作忙没时间现在就去针对这个领域做学习和研究，那么只要定投大饼和烧饼就好了，这是最简单也是最失败错误的投资路径（只要熊市坚持买牛市分批卖、你一样跑赢很多人）可以。总而言之，每个选择的人都应该有自己的，做自己最喜欢和最掌握的事情即可，而不是活在别人的所谓言语中、或者羡慕别人的所谓成绩。

巴菲特还说过：耐心是投资最好的朋友。

所以，多点耐心、多点思考、保持良好心态、把握好自己能把握住的机会。这样坚持1-2个停机周期，相信你一定能赢很多人。

好了，本期的内容我们就暂时先分享到这里，这也是话李话外更新的第409篇文章，后面我们会继续给大家带来更多相关的分享，感兴趣的小伙伴可以通过话李话外查看并了解更多内容。

注：以上内容只是个人角度观点及分析，仅作为科普学习和交流之用，不构成任何投资建议。加密市场为极高风险领域，请理性看待，提高风险防范意识，并遵守存在国家和地区的相关法律法规！

标签：BTC 价格 比特币 美联储