价格分析 2/12：SPX、DXY、BTC、ETH、BNB、SOL、XRP、ADA、AVAX、DOGE

受美国股市走强以及大量资金流入现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）的提振，比特币（BTC）已达到 50,000 美元的心理关键水平。知名交易员 Daan Crypto Trades 在 X 帖子中指出，比特币 ETF 的净流入已连续 11 天为正值。

一些分析师预计牛市将继续，但 CryptoSlate 研究和数据分析师 James Van Straten 警告交易员可能会出现回调。 Van Straten 在 X 帖子中表示，比特币总供应量的利润已接近 95%，这“通常标志着顶部”。

每日加密货币市场表现。来源：

尽管短期回调风险依然存在，但长期前景看起来令人鼓舞。加密货币分析平台 Glassnode 在 2 月 10 日的 X 帖子中表示，部分链上指标显示出比特币可能处于牛市初始阶段的迹象。

比特币能否延续上涨趋势，拉动部分山寨币走高？让我们分析一下图表来找出答案。

标准普尔 500 指数价格分析

标准普尔 500 指数 (SPX) 上周延续涨势，突破 5,000 点重要心理关口，表明多头需求强劲。

SPX 日线图。来源：

如果买家将价格维持在 5,000 点以上，该指数可能会加速并飙升至下一个目标 5,200 点。尽管向上倾斜的移动平均线表明买家有优势，但相对强弱指数（RSI）的负背离警告称，调整可能即将到来。

空头必须将价格拉至 20 天指数移动平均线 (4,913) 以下，以发出短期局部顶部信号。随后该指数可能会跌至50日简单移动平均线（4,779）。

美元指数价格分析

美元指数 (DXY) 在 2 月 2 日突破反向头肩形态的颈线后正在盘整。

DXY 日线图。来源：

上升的 20 日均线（103.63）和 RSI 处于正值区域表明多头略有优势。如果买家将价格推升至 104.60 以上，则将标志着上升趋势的恢复。该指数随后可能会攀升至 106，随后升至 107。

相反，如果价格跌破颈线，则表明空头正试图卷土重来。如果价格继续走低并跌破 102.77，则看涨设置将失效。

比特币价格分析

比特币突破 1 月 11 日高点 48,970 美元，表明 2 月 12 日下一阶段上升趋势的开始。

BTC/USDT 日线图。来源：

A close above $48,970 will confirm the breakout and set the stage for a possible rally to $52,000. The $50,000 level may act as a minor resistance, but it is likely to be crossed. A strong momentum could clear the path for a potential rise to $60,000.

Contrary to this assumption, if the BTC/USDT pair turns down and breaks back below $48,970, it will suggest that the bears are selling near $50,000. That will increase the risk of a fall to $44,700.

Ether price analysis

The bears tried to stall Ether’s (ETH) recovery near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of $2,507 on Feb. 12, but the bulls did not relent.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The rising 20-day EMA ($2,400) and the RSI in the positive territory indicate that bulls are in command. There is a minor resistance at $2,600, but if that level is crossed, the ETH/USDT pair could reach $2,717.

The breakout level of $2,400 remains the key support to watch for on the downside. If this level is taken out, the selling could accelerate, and the pair may plummet to the strong support at $2,100. Buyers are expected to defend this level aggressively.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) broke above the downtrend line on Feb. 8, but the bulls are finding it difficult to drive the price to the overhead resistance at $338.

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The BNB/USDT pair dipped near the moving averages on Feb. 12, but the long tail on the candlestick shows solid buying at lower levels. Buyers will try to clear the minor hurdle at $326 and shove the price to the stiff overhead resistance of $338.

On the contrary, if the price turns down sharply and breaks below the moving average, it will indicate that the bears are attempting a comeback. The pair may then slump to the strong support at $288.

XRP price analysis

XRP’s (XRP) recovery attempt is facing selling at the 20-day EMA ($0.52), indicating that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If the price turns lower from the current level, the bears will try to sink and maintain the price below the strong support at $0.50. If they do that, the XRP/USDT pair could slide to the critical support at $0.46. Buyers are expected to defend this level with vigor.

On the upside, a break and close above the 20-day EMA will be the first sign of strength. The pair may then climb to the downtrend line, which is likely to act as a major hurdle for the bulls. A break above this resistance will clear the path for a possible rally to $0.67.

Solana price analysis

The bulls propelled Solana (SOL) above the neckline of the inverse H&S pattern on Feb. 10 and are trying to defend the level during the pullback on Feb. 12.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If buyers maintain the price above $107, the SOL/USDT pair is likely to accelerate toward $117 and then $126. A break above this resistance will signal the resumption of the uptrend. The next target objective on the upside is $135.

Alternatively, if the price turns down sharply and breaks below the moving averages, it will indicate that the break above $107 may have been a bull trap. The pair may then fall to $93 and later to $80.

Related: Bitcoin hits $50K for first time since December 2021

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) is witnessing a tough battle between the bulls and the bears near the downtrend line of the descending channel pattern.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls pushed the price above the channel on Feb. 10, but they could not build upon the breakout on Feb. 11. The bears tried to take advantage of the situation and sink the price below the 50-day SMA ($0.53) on Feb. 12, but the bulls held their ground. This shows that every minor dip is being bought. Buyers will try to propel the ADA/USDT pair to $0.62 and subsequently to $0.68.

Meanwhile, the bears are likely to have other plans. They will try to drag the price back below the moving averages. If they can pull it off, the pair may fall to the vital support at $0.46. Buyers are expected to guard this level because if they fail to do that, the pair may dive to $0.40.

Avalanche price analysis

Avalanche (AVAX) is facing selling near $42, indicating that the higher levels continue to attract sellers.

AVAX/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The first support on the downside is at the moving averages. If the price bounces off the 20-day EMA ($36.27), it will indicate that the sentiment remains positive and traders are viewing the dips as a buying opportunity. The AVAX/USDT pair will then again try to overcome the barrier at $42. If that happens, the pair may soar to $50.

On the contrary, a slide below the moving averages will indicate that the breakout was a fake move. The pair may decline to $32, an important level to watch out for.

Dogecoin price analysis

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been trading inside a symmetrical triangle for the past several days, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.08) has flattened out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. Buyers will have to thrust the price above the triangle to gain the upper hand. The DOGE/USDT pair may then attempt a rally to the $0.10 to $0.11 resistance zone.

The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if they sink and maintain the price below the uptrend line. That may start a fall to the strong support at $0.07 and eventually to $0.06. Buyers are likely to defend this level aggressively.

本文不包含投资建议或建议。每一项投资和交易行为都涉及风险，读者在做出决定时应自行研究。

标签：ADA AVAX bnb BTC