[海伦]Coinbase Research发现Render、WorldCoin等AI加密代币的“被高估”情况

Coinbase Research 在其报告《加密货币的 AI 海市蜃楼》中对人工智能 (AI) 和加密货币之间的交叉点进行了细致入微的研究，揭示了充满高估和投机热情的景象。

Coinbase 的机构研究分析师 David Han 率先进行了这项分析，为审视人工智能加密代币的未来提供了一个重要的视角。

AI加密代币缺乏“持续的需求驱动因素”

该报告的核心内容是，尽管加密人工智能领域迅速扩张并受到投资者和公众的关注，但它仍面临着巨大的障碍，可能会在可预见的未来阻碍其采用。

Han 表示：“人工智能代币受到了更广泛的加密货币和人工智能市场的提振，但在中短期内可能缺乏持续的需求驱动因素。”他强调了这些代币估值可能依赖的不稳定基础。

该报告的关键见解之一是对去中心化作为加密领域人工智能产品的独立优点的批评。

报告阐述道：“我们普遍认为，对于人工智能产品来说，去中心化本身并不足以带来足够的竞争优势——它还必须在某些其他关键领域达到与中心化产品同等的功能。”

这种观点挑战了流行的观点，即权力下放本质上赋予了优越性，而是主张采取平衡的方法，考虑成功的其他关键因素。

该分析进一步阐明了对许多人工智能代币价值潜力的“逆向观点”，表明市场的繁荣可能与这些企业的实际前景不一致。

“我们的观点是，许多人工智能代币的价值潜力可能被夸大了……而且许多人工智能代币在中短期内可能缺乏可持续的需求方驱动因素，”韩解释道。

这种谨慎的立场源于人工智能技术的快速发展，人工智能技术是一把双刃剑——在推进该领域的同时，它也为基于加密的创新扰乱现有市场设置了障碍。

该报告深入探讨了人工智能和加密货币交叉点的分类，区分了增强加密行业的人工智能应用程序和旨在通过去中心化方法颠覆传统人工智能管道的人工智能应用程序。

它承认前一类的明显好处和长期前景的潜力。

相比之下，它对后者的价值主张提出了质疑，凸显了市场竞争和监管障碍带来的巨大挑战。

只是投机赌博吗？

Despite these challenges, the report notes a paradox where AI tokens have outperformed benchmarks such as bitcoin, ether, and even major AI equities like Nvidia and Microsoft since the fourth quarter of 2023. “AI tokens generally benefit from strong associated performance in both the broader crypto market as well as related AI news headlines,” the report observes, suggesting that these tokens can act as proxies for AI progress, albeit potentially detached from their actual utility or adoption metrics.

However, the speculative nature of this market is not lost on Coinbase Research, which warns of the risks associated with memetic speculation absent clear adoption forecasts. “A lack of clear adoption forecasting and metrics have enabled a wide range of memetic speculation which may not be long-term sustainable,” Han remarks, highlighting the precarious balance between price and utility in the AI token market.

In its concluding remarks, the report emphasizes the need for a judicious approach to navigating the crypto-AI landscape. It cautions against overreliance on decentralization as a panacea and advocates for a realistic appraisal of the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. “Crypto’s role in AI does not exist in a vacuum... Thus, supplanting centralized providers purely for the sake of ‘decentralization’ is insufficient,” the report concludes, advocating for a more nuanced and critical examination of how crypto can genuinely contribute to the AI domain.

Render And WorldCoin Under The Microscope

WorldCoin emerges as a case study in the report, illustrating how AI tokens’ valuations can be significantly influenced by market headlines and promotional activities, often detached from tangible developments within the project itself. “The fully diluted valuation of Worldcoin sits at $80B – similar to that of OpenAI’s $86B February 16 valuation...,” Han notes, pointing to the speculative dynamics that can inflate valuations irrespective of underlying fundamentals.

He details that WorldCoin is perhaps the clearest example of AI tokens tracking AI market headlines. “It released its World ID 2.0 upgrade on December 13, 2023 that went mostly unnoticed, yet made a 50% move upwards following Sam Altman’s promotion of Worldcoin on December 15,” Han remarked, adding that “OpenAI’s Sora release on February 15, 2024 led to a nearly threefold gain in price despite no related announcements on Worldcoin’s Twitter or blog.”

Regarding Render Network (RNDR), Han highlights that the decentralized computing (DeComp) sector of the crypto economy is meant to be an alternative to the centralized cloud computing model. He argues that crypto projects such as Render and Akash have benefited from the GPU supply crunch.

However, he questions the long-term viability:

对于计算定价可以根据供需变化而变化的网络（例如 Render 和 Akash），我们不清楚如果供应方的增长超过需求方的增长，最终将在哪里出现对原生代币的持续的、使用驱动的需求。

我们认为未来可能需要重新审视此类代币经济模型。

截至发稿时，RNDR 交易价格为 9.925 美元。

价格发现模式下的 RNDR，1 周图表 |

资料来源：TradingView.com 上的 RNDRUSDT